September 1, 2004 Commentary (mid-week
Today I'm going to discuss some business
matters, and after that I'll show an interesting new potential setup that I am
keeping an eye on. These past few weeks I have been getting inundated with
e-mails. I guess my plan to keep most or just about all of the details of the
upcoming '100th anniversary commentary surprise' a secret in order to not have
to answer a lot of questions has really backfired on me. If anything, as the
time has drawn closer, it has more people asking more questions than I could
In retrospect, I would have saved myself a lot of time if I had
just laid it out right off the bat. I just wasn't sure exactly what I was going
to do, and what the details were going to be, so I let it fill out and I
decided what I would do as I went along. I think it's best if I lay out the
majority of this right here and now, since we are so close, as it is, to the
'unveiling'. The surprise is going to be a new book. It's going to be titled
Kane Trading on: A Totally New 5-Point Pattern. My plan is to have the
full description and such up on the books page by this weekend.
The book is
now at the printers, and is expected to be ready for shipping near the end of
next week. I'll get into some particulars right now, but understand that you'll
have to wait until the weekend to see the full description and such. The book
is just chock-full of my very best, latest Fibonacci and pattern material. Much
of it will be material never before revealed to anyone. I will be releasing the
two new Fibonacci-derived numbers that I referred to in the free article Some discussion about Advanced Fibonacci
Trading Concepts and the Kane Trading methodology.
form the basis for a brand new 5-point pattern, which I fully quantify and lay
out, with specific alignments. But the book has much, much more than this. I
decided to rectify the omission of three numbers in Kane Trading on: Advanced Fibonacci
Trading Concepts, plus show some additional derivations I wish I had
shown in that work. I've shown some work on the additional numbers from
AFTC that really shines some light on many things that I have observed
with these numbers.
I also delve much deeper into my totally unique (and
previously proprietary) concepts on 'harmonicity' and 'layered support and
resistance'. This is the material that I alluded to in the free article. I decided I wasn't
likely to get to a revised edition of AFTC any time in the near future,
so I addressed all of what I felt was missing in AFTC in this new
I get into many new thoughts, ideas, and concepts on patterns, and
specifically on 5-point patterns. I introduce a totally new idea that I came up
with called the 'Pattern Stretch' concept. I also added significantly to the
discussion on pattern characteristics from Kane Trading on: Multiple Timeframes and
'Context' (in the 'Pattern Structure' chapter). As always, the emphasis
is on practical things that I find useful for my own real trading, and not on
theory. I've done some additional analysis on 5-point pattern structures that
is unlike anything done or presented anywhere else. It's truly new, unique, and
It's also practical information, though. I've done some fascinating
mathematical and geometrical analysis of the pattern structure, but I've also
summarized the very amazing conclusions in various tables, to make the end
results useful and easy to apply. I've also shown how I have incorporated these
new numbers into the existing material that I have presented so far in my other
books, and explained why I think these new numbers are critical for my
There is so much more to this book than the new pattern, that I am
quite worried I have done a very poor job indeed choosing the title. I've
already decided that if I get ten million questions asking if it's only about a
new pattern, I'm going to change the title. I'm already planning several FAQ's
relating to this book, and that question will be one of them. From cover to
cover this book is filled with what I think is the best, brand new, cutting
edge Fibonacci and harmonic analysis. It's just my opinion, but there is
nothing like this material out there at all.
This leads to an obvious question:
why release this stuff at all? Well, my intention was to not release it. And to
answer why I did, I need to tell one of my stories. Before this idea about
another book came into my head, I was having one of my many discussions with my
friend and colleague over at Harmonic Trader, Scott Carney. He pointed out how
the market had just reacted strongly off an .886 retracement, and I commented
that in many ways, I wished I had never released that information, or for that
matter, any of what I have released.
That led to one of our usually fruitful and
productive 'long, heated discussions'. At the end I was quite wound up and
frustrated. I wasn't sure if I should have kept it all quiet, or just done what
Scott argues, and released it all. I decided that it should be one or the
other, not half way. Since I've released a great part of what I have
discovered, I decided I wasn't going to fence sit any more. I'm letting it out.
Scott convinced me that releasing, and publishing, the material was the best
thing to do (I'm still not totally convinced, but he argues so
tirelessly and convincingly that you are going to get all this new material
thanks to him).
I decided in this case that I was going to compromise. To me, this
is the best of the best of what I have worked on for years and years. No one on
earth knows this material but me. It is material that I haven't discussed with
one single person to this day. If I release it here, I am not going to sell
this as a stand-alone book. I will only sell it to the most serious clients,
and to me that's those that have bought, or are willing to buy, a full set of
the books. Sorry, but you can't have all this proprietary information for the
inexpensive price of one book.
I've decided, though, to combine one of the
most popular requests I get with this method of releasing the new book. I get
asked a lot if I have a package for the entire set of books, or if I will give
a discount for a full set. I have not offered any discounts to this day because
most of my orders are just for full sets, no discount, and I wasn't even asked
for a discount. I have been asked many, many times if I would do a discount on
a full set, and I usually reply that I might be able to do something. I try to
assess how serious the person is.
To this day I have never sold a single set to
anyone who asked for a discount, even if I said I would consider giving one.
So, if I had a package discount, I lose the discount amount on all the orders
where the people felt the books are worth the price, and I pick up an
occasional person who buys with the discount that otherwise would have passed.
It just doesn't make sense. I have put an enormous amount of time and work into
these books, and they are worth every penny, in my opinion, of the asking
price. If I thought they were worth less, I would have priced them
Plus, I don't think it is that fair to those that paid full price
for me to offer discounts to some people. Hence, I came up with a plan to
address all this. It's very fair to my existing customers who have bought full
sets, even though I'm not obligated to do anything along those lines. It's just
the type of fair and 'nice' guy that I am.
Here's the plan. I will offer an
entire set package, with the previous five books and this new book, and I will
discount it by just over 10%. I will also offer a package with all this
material, plus the two hard copy articles, also discounted just over 10%. I am
also going to throw in free shipping in the continental U.S. on these packages
for the next few months.
The new book will be priced at $74.95. To really make it
a good deal for the existing customers who have bought the full set (this means
all five books), I will set up a separate link if you want to purchase
the new book. I will factor in the price to 'upgrade' you to the package, and
the cost to you will be the difference. In other words, I will apply the just
over 10% discount towards the book as a credit, and you get it for that reduced
This deal puts all the full set customers on level ground with the
new package purchasers. I think that's more than fair. I will also ship those
free to continental U.S. buyers. I will offer this upgrade price for the next
two months, until December 1. After that, I will allow the full set customers
to buy the book at the regular price any time they want.
If you want
to order the package this weekend (assuming I get the new page up), feel free
to do so, as long as you understand that I will not be able to ship until the
end of next week, if all goes well at the printers. If you are a full set
customer and want to buy the book, please e-mail me and request the link for
the purchase page.
Finally, now that this one is done, I must rest for a
bit or I'll die. Once rested, I will finally get Trade Management done, I
promise. I have also been getting a lot of e-mails lately asking about
that. I can't take it any more having this over my head, so I will finish it
up. I can't say when, hopefully by November 1, but it might take a little
longer. Once I get that done, I will upgrade the package and its pricing to
include that one. And then I will stop writing for hopefully a long while. I
say this, as I get request after request for a book on constructing a trading
Let's finish today with a very interesting chart I
noticed. Let's look at a 60-minute chart of GOOG.
Do you see the potential setup there? Let me
highlight what I am looking at, and put my groupings on the chart.
GOOG is setting up a nice looking 5-point
pattern in here. Two very clear, very tight groupings have come together, based
on .786 and .886 retracements.
There is one thing to keep in mind here. Some
data vendors are not agreeing on the low of the initial day. (Many say it was
95.96. I don't know, my T&S shows prints at 95.00, and I didn't see them
get reversed out. Even if they were, the perception of trades at that price may
have been factored in.) In each grouping are four numbers, three of which come
from the pattern itself. Only the .786 and .886 retracements key off the
opening day low. If the low actually is up just a bit higher, the two
retracements would move up just a bit. This would decrease the 'harmonicity'
for me, and widen the groupings a bit.
Regardless of all that, I want to watch this
one very closely, and see what the price action does from here. If you key off
a 95.96 initial day low, the .786 retracement was hit today. This one will be
interesting to watch.
The next commentary will be the weekend
edition, posted on Sunday.
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